Chris Hipkins has overtaken Christopher Luxon as the preferred Prime Minister in the latest Taxpayers’ Union-Curia Poll, marking a shift in political momentum as the centre-left bloc increases its lead.

The poll shows Labour, the Greens, and Te Pāti Māori could form a government, while support for the National-led bloc has slipped.

Party support breakdown:

•Labour: 34.1% (+2.8)

•National: 33.6% (+1.7)

•Greens: 10.0% (-3.2)

•ACT: 7.7% (-2.3)

•NZ First: 5.1% (-1.3)

•Te Pāti Māori: 6.5% (+2.1)

Based on these results, the centre-left bloc would hold 62 seats, enough to form a government. Meanwhile, the centre-right bloc has dropped to 58 seats, meaning National and ACT would not have the numbers to govern even with the support of New Zealand First.

The biggest headline from the poll is the preferred Prime Minister rankings, where Hipkins has climbed 3.1 points to 20.7%, surpassing Luxon, who has dropped to 20.3% (-0.4 points).

This marks the first time since the 2023 election that Hipkins has overtaken Luxon as the most preferred choice for Prime Minister—a rare feat for an Opposition Leader outside of an election period.

Meanwhile, economic issues remain a key concern for voters. A previous poll by Curia found strong public support for policies focused on boosting tourism, attracting more international students, and cutting taxes to drive economic growth.