National has dropped one point this month in the latest Taxpayers’ Union – Curia Poll, to be on 36% but retakes the lead over Labour which falls back three points to 34%. ACT is up three to 13% while the Greens are unchanged on 7%.

Of the smaller parties, the Māori Party is on 3.7% (+0.8 points), NZ First on 2.6% (nc), TOP on 1.7% (+0.9 points), New Conservatives on 1.6% (-0.1 points), and Democracy NZ 0.3% (-1.3 points).’

Labour is down four seats on last month to 44 while National is down one seat to 46.

ACT is up four seats to 16 while the Greens are unchanged on 9 seats.

The Māori Party is up one seat to 5.

On these numbers, the Centre-Right bloc would be in a position to form government with a combined total of 62 seats, which is up three on last month.

The combined total for the Centre Left drops four seats to 53.

Chris Hipkins’s net favourability score of +22% is six points lower than last month and down 11 points on his March peak of +33%.

Christopher Luxon’s score of -7% (-1 point) is at its lowest level since he became National Party leader in November 2021 while David Seymour is on -11% (-5 points).

Chris Hipkins has a slight positive net favourability rating with National voters +7% while Christopher Luxon has a score of -56% with Labour voters.

In another worrying sign for Christopher Luxon, among undecided voters, Chris Hipkins has a positive net favourability of +30% while Christopher Luxon is on -26%. David Seymour is on -32%.